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invest | yos-blog

国債を買います!新興国国債を体感

2019年の目標の一つである債権の購入を検討し、実施した。債権のリスクは以下の3点だが、今回は債権の途中販売を検討していないので、債権単価変動リスクは関係ない。

債権のリスク

  • 国のデフォルトリスク 国債の場合、国がデフォルトしたら帰ってこない
  • 債権単価変動リスク 購入価格で販売できるとは限らない
  • 為替変動リスク 為替によって、円に戻したときに購入価格を下回る

予算と購入対象候補

予算は6万円で楽天証券で口座を開いていた都合から、以下の中から検討。また、面白みがないので日本国債は検討対象から除外。

  1. 米国債
  2. メキシコペソ建債権
  3. インド・ルピー建て債券
  4. ブラジル・レアル建て債券
  5. 南アフリカ・ランド建て債券
  6. トルコ・リラ建て債券
  7. ロシア・ルーブル建て債券

最低購入単位が予算内に収まるもの、かつ、今回は余剰資金での学習目的のため、リラ(超ハイリスク)、レアル(ハイリスク)、ドル(ローリスク)の3つに決定。

利益計算 トルコリラ と ブラジルレアル

為替変動リスクについて

野村證券のマーケットアウトルックによれば、トルコリラとブラジルレアルの対円相場は以下の見通し
https://www.nomura.co.jp/market/report/outlook/ex_try.html
(トルコリラの対円相場レンジを1リラ=17.9~20.9円と予想します。)

https://www.nomura.co.jp/market/report/outlook/ex_brl.html
(ブラジルレアルの対円相場を1レアル=28.5~32.7円と予想します。)

上記から計算すると、日本円に換算するとそれぞれ利益レンジは以下の表になると予測
あくまで目安でしかないが、こんな感じでExcelで計算しました。

予測:2022年3月時点の28500で購入したトルコリラ1000

予測:2023年3月時点の28500で購入したブラジルレアル1000

あくまで暫定の計算だが、貨幣の価値が上がれば利益も増えるし、そうでなければ下がる。
ただし、流石に利回り(クーポン)が高いだけあって、為替の変動を受けたとしてもマイナスにはならないような予測になった。なお、米国債は、同様に2019年末で115円予測なので、
https://www.nomura.co.jp/market/report/outlook/ex_ed.html

今回の購入予定のものの利益見通しは、2020年3月までで、100USDドルを投資して、420円程度の利益と想定。

利益予測結果まとめ

トルコ リラは、100TRY(19000円相当)を購入して、3年後 4360 – 8514 円 (7.6%-14.9%)
ブラジル レアルは、100BRL(28000円相当)を購入して、4年後 4900 – 9714 円(4.3%-11.5%)
アメリカ ドルは、100TUSD(11900円相当)を購入して、1年後 420 円(3.5%)

これであってるのかな?あとは、購入して、これがあってるか検証する。